The NRL season has reached its most thrilling phase, with Finals Week 1 promising intense encounters that will shape the road to the premiership. Fans across the country are gearing up for a weekend of high-stakes football as top sides battle for glory, while others fight for survival in elimination clashes. The Sporting News has broken down the key matchups, offering predictions, tips, and best bets for each encounter.
Melbourne Storm vs. Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday Night Blockbuster
The finals action kicks off at AAMI Park on Friday night, where the reigning powerhouse Melbourne Storm will host the Canterbury Bulldogs. Melbourne is once again aiming to secure a preliminary final berth, continuing their dominance in recent seasons.
The Storm have been consistent throughout the campaign, combining experience and structured game plans to maintain their spot among the competition’s elite. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs, under their coaching staff, have faced a tough year but are determined to create an upset on the road.
With home advantage on their side and a roster filled with finals experience, Melbourne enters the clash as favourites, though the Bulldogs have the capacity to surprise if they can execute their attack effectively and contain the Storm’s lethal combinations.
Warriors vs. Panthers – Saturday Elimination Thriller
The penultimate showdown of Saturday sees Penrith travel to New Zealand to face the Warriors in what promises to be a high-pressure elimination final. The Panthers’ premiership defence faced serious doubts midway through the season, as they struggled near the bottom of the ladder, leaving coach Ivan Cleary searching for answers following four consecutive title wins.
A nine-game winning streak allowed Penrith to surge back into finals contention, but this year they face a more challenging path if they are to maintain their stranglehold over the competition. “First on the agenda is a trip across the ditch to take on Andrew Webster's side, who relinquished their grip on a top-four place late in the season as injuries started to bite,” the Sporting News notes.
The Warriors are considered overwhelming underdogs for the clash, priced as the biggest outsiders in the opening week of finals. Earlier in the season, the Panthers claimed a 28-18 victory over the Warriors in Auckland during their nine-game winning streak. Scott Sorensen starred with a double for Penrith, while Tom Jenkins and Paul Alamoti also crossed for tries.
Teenage sensation Casey McLean has been particularly dangerous in the second half of the season, registering nine tries in his last seven matches, including three doubles and three assists. The Kiwi international could form a formidable left-edge combination with Brian To’o, especially as Jenkins was overlooked by Cleary.
Prediction: Panthers by 12
Best Bet: Casey McLean anytime tryscorer ($2.25)
Sharks vs. Roosters – Elimination Battle
Later on Saturday, the Cronulla Sharks will host the Sydney Roosters in a do-or-die clash that has all the hallmarks of a classic finals encounter. The two sides have already faced each other twice this season, with both teams recording one win each. The Roosters triumphed 42-16 in Round 12, only for Craig Fitzgibbon’s men to respond with a 31-18 win in Round 20.
Several consistent trends have emerged from these clashes, particularly regarding Sydney’s key players. “Daniel Tupou has caused nightmares for the defence and James Tedesco has found the line,” highlighting the impact of the Roosters’ attacking stars. Tupou bagged a double within the first ten minutes of their first meeting and scored early again in their second encounter.
While Mark Nawaqanitawase has drawn headlines with his late-season surge and Ken Irvine Medal win, Tupou quietly maintains his influence. He has scored in all but three of his last twelve games, making him a constant threat as Cronulla seeks to avoid an eighth consecutive defeat during Finals Week 1.
Prediction: Roosters by 6
Best Bet: Roosters win / Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer ($2.60)
Raiders vs. Broncos – Sunday Showdown
The final match of the opening finals weekend features the Canberra Raiders taking on the Brisbane Broncos at GIO Stadium. Canberra clinched the minor premiership a fortnight ago and enter the clash well-rested, while Brisbane, coached by Michael Maguire, recovered from a mid-season slump to finish fourth on the ladder.
Much of Brisbane’s late-season revival can be attributed to fullback Reece Walsh, who has been at the centre of their attack over the past month. “The No.1 has scored five tries, provided six assists, busted through 40 tackles and regularly topped his side's run metre chart as he has stepped up in the absence of Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds,” the Sporting News reports.
For the Raiders, five-eighth Ethan Strange has also impressed in recent weeks, emerging as a strong candidate for Australian selection. He has scored in his last three matches, including a hat-trick against Manly in Round 23, and continues to play a pivotal role in Canberra’s home dominance. The Raiders have won their last seven games at GIO Stadium, making them formidable hosts in this qualifying final.
Prediction: Raiders by 4
Best Bet: Ethan Strange / Reece Walsh anytime tryscorers ($5.50)
Final Thoughts
With Finals Week 1 now upon us, fans can expect edge-of-the-seat action, with premiership ambitions and survival at stake. From Penrith’s cross-Tasman challenge to Canberra’s home-ground advantage over Brisbane, each match presents unique storylines, standout performers, and potential upsets. Bettors and fans alike should watch key players such as Casey McLean, Daniel Tupou, Reece Walsh, and Ethan Strange, who could very well shape the outcomes of these thrilling contests.
